Stock leverage operation risk
The heat wave of A-share holdings this year has been pushed up by the Stock leverage operation riskinflux of outstanding shares. According to data, in 2020, a total of 2,384 listed companies will lift the ban on new shares, corresponding to a total market value of approximately 61 trillion yuan. In 2018 and 2019, this value was only 92 trillion yuan and 30 trillion yuan respectively.
The year-on-year increase in medium and long-term corporate loans in October indicates a further recovery in credit demand; M1 continued its upward guidance year-on-year and PPI rebounded and replenishment in the first half of next year. 113 The number of new cases in the United States exceeded 190,000. Before the vaccine is officially released, the domestic supply chain and export advantages are expected to continue. Foreign investment + institution adjustments are expected to become the main force of dual-line funds at the end of the year, corresponding to the performance of the biased economy sector and the biased value sector. In the short-term configuration, we will pay attention to the technology of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and continue to recommend the five major chains of β+α logic: automobile industry chain/manufacturing investment chain/new energy chain/big finance/Yangtze River Delta region.
However, for the three policy financial institutions to play a role in counter-cyclical adjustment, they cannot do without the liquidity support of the central bank. In 2014, in order to support shantytown reconstruction, affordable housing projects, agriculture, rural areas, and small and micro enterprises, the central bank created PSL to provide liquidity to the China Development Bank, which was later extended to three policy financial institutions. PSL is similar to targeted refinancing, which mainly flows to key areas and weak links of the national economy such as agriculture, rural areas, small and micro enterprises, and shed reform. The term is generally 3-5 years. The central bank previously disclosed that the interest rate of PSL is 1%. In May 2016, the central bank formally announced that it would issue PSLs corresponding to the specific investment loans last month to three policy financial institutions at the beginning of each month.
On April 26, the 2019 High-Quality Development Forum of Listed Companies hosted by the Securities Times was held in Beijing. Li Mingzhong, deputy general manager of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, stated at the forum that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will take a series of measures to guide listed companies in the context of high-quality development. , Do a good job in investor relations management. The first is to strengthen system construction and regulatory attention to enhance the standardization of investor relationship management. In response to proactive hotspot behaviors, strengthen the linkage between information disclosure supervision and transaction monitoring, and urge listed companies to make truthful disclosures through inquisitive regulatory inquiries. The second is to strengthen training and guidance. The third is to strengthen investor education.
□ Our reporter Hu Yu/p On the evening of August 25, China Securities Construction Investment (601066) disclosed the 2020 semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, its operating income was nearly 9.9 billion yuan, and its net profit exceeded 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. At present, four leading securities firms, CITIC Securities (600030), CITIC Construction Investment, Guotai Junan (601211), and Guosen Securities (002736) have disclosed the 2020 semi-annual reports. Based on the data released by the Securities Industry Association, the operating income and net profit of the four securities firms in the first half of 2020 accounted for more than a quarter of the entire industry. /p Industry insiders believe that under the scenario of continuous optimization of the industry structure and market environment in the future, the differentiated development of the securities industry may accelerate, and the leading securities firms are expected to increase the market share of various businesses through strong comprehensive strength. /pstrong top brokerage firm Hengqiang/strong/p The semi-annual report of China Securities Investment Corporation shows that in the first half of 2020, the company achieved operating income of nearly 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 663%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 47.8 billion yuan , An increase of 954% year-on-year; as of June 30, 2020, the company's total assets totaled 31122 billion yuan, of which 59.086 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of the parent company. /p China Securities Investment said that in the first half of the year, the company's equity financing projects and lead underwriting amount both ranked first in the industry, and debt financing lead underwriting projects and lead underwriting scale both ranked second in the industry. Wealth management business remained the industry's top 10, transactions and institutions Excellent customer service performance. From the perspective of revenue composition, trading and institutional customer service business has become the company's largest source of operating income, with a cumulative revenue of 47.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 2610% year-on-year. /p Securities News reporter combed and found that as of August 25, four leading securities firms, namely CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, Guotai Junan, and Guosen Securities, have published the 2020 semi-annual report. The sum of their operating income in the first half of the year is 6094. 100 million yuan, the sum of profits is 210.4 billion yuan. Previously, the operating data of securities companies in the first half of 2020 released by the Securities Industry Association showed that 134 securities companies achieved operating income of 2,130.4 billion yuan and net profit of 834.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Based on this calculation, the total operating income of the four top brokers in the first half of the year has accounted for 235% of the entire industry, and the total net profit has accounted for 234% of the entire industry, accounting for more than a quarter. /p Judging from the content of the semi-annual reports of the four leading brokerage firms, many emphasized the need to further develop and consolidate the existing advantages when talking about the plan for the second half of the year. Taking Guotai Junan as an example, the company stated that in the second half of the year, the credit business should accelerate the optimization of the pledge business management system and further increase the share of margin financing and securities lending; the wealth management business will accelerate the pace of transformation while maintaining the leading net income of agency trading; international business will strengthen cross-border Collaborate to accelerate the development of new revenue growth points. /p Since the end of 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has made it clear that it will actively promote the creation of an aircraft carrier-level leading securities company, and the market has become increasingly calling for mergers of large brokerages. In this regard, Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities (600918), believes that integrating brokerages through mergers and acquisitions is definitely a shortcut to become stronger and bigger, but the current strong alliance between domestic brokerages is difficult to achieve. The effect of +1>2 may be a more feasible mode of combining the strong and the weak, that is, the strong and the weak are used to achieve the complementarity between resources, platforms and talents. /pstrong Differentiated Development Competitive on the Same Stage/strong/p Regarding the future development trend of the securities industry, the market's more common view is that while the leading brokerage firms continue to grow bigger and stronger, other small and medium-sized brokerage firms combine their own advantages to move towards the goal of specialized boutique brokerage firms . Since the beginning of this year, with the implementation of a series of capital market reform measures such as the ChiNext registration system, the path for differentiated development of the securities industry has become increasingly clear. /p On August 24, the ChiNext registration system officially landed. In this regard, Aijian Securities analyst Zhang Zhipeng pointed out that under the registration system, the requirements for securities firm projects and talent reserves are higher, and the concentration of investment banking business is expected to further increase, and resources are tilted toward leading securities firms. In terms of fundamentals, in the medium and long term, with the continuous advancement of capital market reforms and the introduction of favorable policies, the fundamentals of securities firms are expected to continue to improve. /p Hong Jinping, head of financial industry research at Huachuang Securities, pointed out that as the deepening reform of the capital market continues, the basic operating elements of the securities industry will be fully optimized, and the improvement of business efficiency is expected to promote the income of light capital businesses such as wealth management, investment banking, and asset management. Steady growth, and the expansion of financing channels, the increase of capital strength, and the gradual implementation of innovative businesses will promote the increase in the revenue scale of capital-intensive businesses such as capital intermediary and investment transactions. /p In Hong Jinping’s view, only high-quality investment banks can better serve the direct financing system. Therefore, deepening the reform of the capital market may accelerate the process of carrierization of leading securities firms and differentiation of boutique securities firms. In the future, the market environment and industry structure will undergo tremendous changes. Under the circumstances, leading brokerages are expected to increase the market share of various businesses with their strong comprehensive strength, while boutique brokerages may stabilize their own moat by deepening a certain business.
With the last quarter left in 2019 and standing at the 3,000-point mark, how will A shares perform? The fund manager immediately compStock leverage operation riskiled the latest strategic analysis of ten securities companies for investors' reference. On the whole, brokerages are more cautious about the performance of A shares in the fourth quarter. They believe that shocks are still the main theme and need to wait for a new round of market catalysts. The arrival of the big bull market will take time.
The 60-day and 120-antennas broke one after another. At 2891, they stopped falling and reversed. The rebound force was too weak, which caused the Tianwu antenna to descend rapidly. Tomorrow, the semi-annual line will die fork downward to help the decline. The 20 and 30 antennas also begin to descend. wonderful. And the five-antenna downward will put a strong pressure on the rebound. From the perspective of quantity, it is difficult for the time to see the expectation that the quantity rushes to the semi-annual line. Most stock indexes will oscillate in the range of 2850-2920 points.
But beyond that, our views are relatively positive. For example, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure construction this year is about 4%, indicating that the local power is insufficient. Looking ahead to next year, we believe that there is still room for upside in infrastructure construction, and countercyclical adjustment is imperative. We predict that next year's infrastructure investment will rebound slightly by 2-3%. Even if it returns to 7%, it will not cross the horizontal line of leverage. The so-called stable leverage means that the debt side cannot exceed GDP, so if the GDP is 7%-8%, the return of infrastructure to 7% will not be considered as leverage.
According to the brokerage research report, the following will systematically sort out the core targets that benefit from the construction of 5G base stations. Main equipment vendors: ZTE, Fiberhome; Communication solution provider: Datang Telecom; Network planning and design: Jesseco, Guomai Technology; Base station antenna: Dongshan Precision, Sega Technology, Tongyu Communication, etc.; Antenna oscillator: Master Baide, Xinwei Communication, etc.; RF filter: Dafu Technology, Wuhan Fangu, Chunxing Precision, etc.; PCB: Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd., Shennan Technology, etc.; Optical Communication Module: Zhongji Innolux, Accelink Technology, Xinyi Sheng, etc.; fiber optic cable: YOFC, Hengtong Optoelectronics, etc.; small base station: ZTE, Sunsea Intelligent, 3D communication, etc.